2025 Edit: This was originally from November 2023. I keep the text to its original, as much as possible, and try to update the timelines only. There it goes.
I feel so lost in conversations these days. So surprised that it’s just been a year since ChatGPT is out, I feel like it’s been here all my lifetime. Especially after moving out, so much of my conversations is going on in online chats, and it’s been difficult ot communicate. I don’t care abour my timelines at all, but this post is going to save me a tone of time so here it is 😀
Metaculus AGI prediction:
I think the tasks here are widely different from each other, combining purely cognitive and purely physical-cognitive tasks together, leading to a clear bottleneck, but anyway.
Q&A Benchmark: 2025-2026
MMLU, pretty similar benchmark, is already at >80%, so this should be solved in 2025 or 2026.
APPS (Algorithmic Reasoning): 2027
MATH and SWE-bench are kind of indicative for this benchmark both? And they seem to have doubled per year, so APPS should catch up? 2027 feels right, idk.
Turing Test (2-hour, multi-modal): ~2030
This one’s tricky. Depends on the judge, this convo can take an entire day or just 10 mins. I guess what matters here is the context length and multi-modality. Also, does AI need to be embedded in a hardware system that has continuous sensory input? Idk, I’ll index this similar to the Ferrari assembly question below, anchoring on difficulty of processing sensory information.
Ferrari Assembly (Real Robots!): 2035-2037
Are we talking about Ferrari actually implementing this because if they have “some” business understanding, the answer is “probably never” because they should keep the luxury human-hand-made brand. I mean we still pay a tone for concerts even though we have Spotify, so someone will need handmade cars, right?
Whatever, in terms of ability, I still think that specific tasks require mastery, like AI will probably produce a car that is functional, but it may need a call-back because a small detail was not perfect. So I’d anchor this on robotics and it has a long way to go. I think it’s plausible that AI can instruct someone to make the car by like 2030, but it’ll probably take another 5 years until it can make it, so maybe by 2035?
Big Picture Prediction: 2035, anchored on the Ferrari task.
Range? 2032-2038. +/- 3 years. Why? Idk.
Assumptions:
- Robotics: there might be a breakthrough, like data farms work out? idk.
- Compute? Will scale – at least to support on the cognitive tasks.
- Regulations: won’t slow down much
- Warning shots: hopefully not by then, but bio stuff is scary
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